The analysis, drawing on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, estimates that the number of MASLD cases could climb to nearly 1.8 billion by 2050. Researchers attributed the projected surge largely to population growth and lifestyle factors such as rising obesity and high blood sugar levels.
The GBD 2023 MASLD Collaborators noted that regions, including North Africa and West Asia, continue to report disproportionately higher prevalence rates than other parts of the world.
Despite the rising number of cases, the overall disease burden — measured in years lost due to ill health, disability, or premature death — has remained relatively stable. This suggests that improvements in treatment and disease management may be helping patients live longer and healthier lives, with many cases being detected in earlier stages.
However, researchers cautioned that the expanding patient pool could translate into a higher risk of severe complications, including liver cirrhosis and cancer, in the years ahead.
The study also flagged a growing incidence of MASLD among younger adults in low- and middle-income countries, driven by rapid urbanisation and lifestyle changes.
The findings underscore the need to recognise MASLD as a major global health challenge, calling for targeted policies, increased awareness, and timely interventions to curb its long-term impact.
According to the study, MASLD affected an estimated 16.1% of the global population in 2023, with an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14,429.3 per 100,000 people. This marks a 142.7% increase in absolute case numbers and a 28.6% rise in prevalence rate compared with 1990.
