Online sales contributed more than 70% of total grocery sales growth in 2025, according to a new report from FMI—The Food Industry Association and research firm NielsenIQ.
The report estimated that U.S. online grocery sales would increase at an annual rate of 11.6% through 2028, reaching a total of $452 billion. While online sales currently account for about 20% of grocery spending, that share will increase to 25.5% in 2028, according to the report, titled Digital Engagement Transforms Grocery Shopping 2026.
Online sales increased nearly 19% last year, the report found, totaling an estimated $325 billion. Grocery-related sales through digital channels are projected to reach $363 billion this year and about $407 billion in 2027.
“Ecommerce is poised for extensive growth,” said Jack O’Leary, director of ecommerce strategic insights for NIQ, adding that retailer success will depend upon how well retailers “connect digital and physical experiences into one cohesive journey.”
The vast majority of consumers—94%—who bought grocery items last year shopped both online and in-store, making at least one purchase in each format, the report found.
“Omnichannel shopping is now the norm for most households,” said Steve Markenson, VP, research and insights, FMI.
The report highlighted some key differences in the way consumers are shopping for groceries in the two channels, however. Ecommerce shopping occasions tend to include smaller baskets containing just one to three items, while stock-up trips with 12 or more items account for just 16% of total ecommerce spending.
Online spending also skews heavily toward shelf-stable, nonfood items, including health and beauty care, baby care, pet care and household care items. Food items, however, which account for only 11.5% of online grocery-related dollar sales, saw the fastest growth in 2025 at 18.8%. Beverages are the leading food category, followed by meat, coffee and prepared foods.
Among other findings from the report:
Retailers are getting faster at making deliveries. Speed has become a key competitive differentiator when it comes to ecommerce, and retailers have shaved their delivery times significantly. The average time from a warehouse or store to a customer’s door is now about two days, vs. four days in 2021
Online sales are growing most rapidly among high-income households. Online spending was up about 29% for people with incomes of $150,000 or more last year, vs. 10% for households earning under $25,000, the report found
Younger consumers have embraced social media as a shopping platform. Grocery-related sales on TikTok Shop in the U.S. were up more than 90% last year, for example. Offerings have expanded beyond health and beauty to include pet, household care and beverages
Artificial intelligence is having an impact on grocery shopping. A third of shoppers (33%) said they have used generative AI to research products, and 22% have used it to summarize reviews. Only 11% have used generative AI to purchase a product for them, but that is expected to increase, especially for low-complexity and low-consideration items, the report found
