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An AI tool developed by Oxford researchers can predict a person’s risk of heart failure up to five years in advance using routine heart scans, with hopes that it could transform early diagnosis
The new artificial intelligence powered tool analyses cardiac CT scans to find subtle tissue changes around the heart invisible to the human eye, enabling earlier detection.
Researchers say the technology could help doctors intervene sooner and improve long-term outcomes by targeting high-risk patients earlier than current methods allow.
The research is available in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Oxford AI tool predicts five-year heart failure risk with 86% accuracy
Researchers from the University of Oxford’s Radcliffe Department of Medicine, led by Professor Charalambos Antoniades, developed the tool to identify textural changes in the fat around the heart that indicate that the heart muscle underneath is inflamed and unhealthy. These changes were invisible to the human eye on routine medical imaging.
The AI tool was trained on over 59,000 individuals from nine NHS Trusts who were followed for ten years after cardiac CT scans. It assessed heart fat and five-year heart failure risk to identify early signs of the condition.
The tool was then tested using scan results from a further 13,424 people in England, and the algorithm predicted the risk a person would develop heart failure in the next five years with 86 per cent accuracy.
High-risk patients 20 times more likely to develop heart failure
The study found that those in the highest risk group were 20 times more likely to develop heart failure than those in the lowest risk group. The people in the highest risk group had around a one in four chance of developing heart failure within five years.
The AI tool identified those at most risk of developing heart failure earlier than previously possible.
Professor Antoniades said: “We have used developments in bioscience and computing to take a big step forward in treating heart failure. Our new AI tool is able to take cardiac CT scan data and produce an absolute risk score for each patient without any need for human input. Although this study used cardiac CT scans, we are now working towards applying this method to any CT scan of the chest, performed for any reason.
“This will allow doctors to make more informed decisions about the best way to treat patients, giving the most intensive treatment to those at the highest risk. We hope that, if this program is rolled out nationwide, it could reduce hospital pressures by helping patients live well for longer.”
The AI tool provides doctors with additional support in making decisions on heart failure care and treatment.
The researchers are seeking regulatory approval to roll out the tool across the NHS. They hope to add it to the normal cardiac CT scan analysis done in radiology departments in hospitals across the country.
