With public listings accounting for a tiny fraction of exits fund managers are turning to alternative ways to give liquidity to their investors.
For decades, the initial public offering was the undisputed “gold standard” for venture capital exits. In recent years this route has been virtually closed, with public listings representing a mere 5% of exit volume in 2025. This situation, a structural shift is forcing the industry to “manufacture” its own liquidity within the private sphere, said Jorge Rodríguez Ordóñez, Head of M&A at Cardumen Capital speaking at the recent GCV Connect event in Madrid.
“Public markets are much more sensitive, evidently, to the whole macro environment, to the whole geopolitical environment, and also to the cost of capital,” said Rodríguez. The threshold for a market listing has risen, leaving even substantial companies stranded in the private market for longer.
Secondary market sales becoming a default
As general partners in VC firms struggle to return capital to their investors, the secondary market has moved from the periphery to the centre of the ecosystem. As Rodríguez put it: “Secondary… is the exit path by default right now in venture capital.”
This shift is a response to a global “distribution drought.” While private markets are “less liquid by default, by definition,” the rapid growth of secondary funds—which have seen assets under management increase fivefold since 2012—is providing a critical alternative to the public markets.
While Rodríguez cautioned that secondaries “still represent only 4% of the size of private equity and venture capital as an asset class,” their growth of 84% relative to 2021 levels suggests the trend is accelerating.
The rise of the mega-tender
Perhaps the most notable trend in the new landscape is the “mega-tender.” In a departure from traditional exit dynamics, companies like OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic are taking liquidity into their own hands. Rodríguez observed that “it is the companies themselves, no longer even the managers, it is the companies themselves that are being very active when it comes to giving liquidity to their investors.”
These multi-billion-dollar tender offers allow elite startups to reward “early believers” and provide liquidity to employees without the regulatory “friction” or volatility of a public listing”. For investors, these transactions offer a way to “know perfectly well what assets you are going to invest in,” avoiding the “blind pool” risks associated with traditional fund investments, Rodríguez said.
This evolution is bringing a new level of sophistication to private transactions. Borrowing from private equity playbooks, venture capital is increasingly seeing the use of “preferred equity solutions,” “continuation vehicles,” and “NAV loans”.
In a world where the public “exit” is no longer guaranteed, the ability to manufacture private liquidity has become the essential survival skill for the modern venture capitalist.
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This article was written by AI based on transcripts from the GCV Connect event and edited by a human.
