Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Oman urged Donald Trump not to launch airstrikes against Iran in a last-minute lobbying campaign prompted by fears that an attack by Washington would lead to a major and intractable conflict across the Middle East.
The warnings of chaos from the longstanding US allies appear to have helped persuade Trump late on Wednesday to hold off for the moment on a military assault. In the case of Saudi Arabia, its reticence led it to deny the US use of its airspace to mount any attacks.
Continuing discussions, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, conferred by phone with his counterparts from Iran, Oman and Turkey on Thursday.
Iran remains politically apart from the Gulf states, partly owing to its continued support for its weakened network of regional proxies, known as the axis of resistance, and its refusal to back a two state-solution for Palestine as well as disputes over three islands in the Gulf claimed by the United Arab Emirates, a claim backed by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
But Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has also undertaken a series of visits to Arab capitals that are said to have improved relations. Last year, for instance, he visited Bahrain, the first Iranian minister to do since 2010. He also visited Cairo four times last year in an effort to improve relations. The two sides had severed diplomatic relations in 2016.
The Saudi-Iranian relationship, once the most fraught in the Middle East, has been on a recovery path for three years. Araghchi makes a point of being photographed sampling local cuisine in the Arab capitals he visits.
All the Gulf states are further aware of the disruption Iran could cause to maritime traffic in the Gulf.
Araghchi has recently been trying to persuade the Gulf states than Iran is less of a risk to global stability than Israel, a case made more plausible after Israel bombed Doha last September with the intent to kill the Hamas negotiators that have lived in the Qatari capital for nearly a decade. The Israelis failed to hit their primary targets, but reportedly killed five lower-ranking members of the group.
The US, not informed of the strikes in advance, apologised directly to Qatar’s emir and offered new security guarantees for Doha designed to protect Qatar from further Israeli attacks. At the time, Qatar accused Israel of trying to sabotage every opportunity for peace in the region.
The US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is a supporter of the Qatari state’s self-appointed but often effective role as a global mediator.
The US al-Udeid airbase, its largest in the region, is in Qatar, and as tensions mounted on Wednesday the US withdrew key personnel from the base.
The withdrawal, after Tehran’s open threats to hit US bases in the region if attacked, underscores how static American land and naval bases in the region designed to project US power could also be a source of vulnerability. Iran persistently claims that the US ordered Israel to end its 12-day assault in the summer on Iran’s leadership and nuclear programme after Iran struck the US base.
Araghchi has also managed to exploit the political capital he has invested in diplomatic outreach by ringing Arab leaders to explain Tehran’s rationale for the crackdown.
Many of the states deeply resent the interference of Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Yet by the same measure, few of them would welcome the example of an authoritarian regime being toppled by street protests riled by falling living standards, and leading to a new democratic transition, or even the fragmentation of a unified Iranian state.
Saudi Arabia for instance has recently put down a rebellion in the south of Yemen that would have broken up the country. The Egyptian military leadership dedicates much its energy to suppressing calls for human rights reforms.
The spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, Majed al-Ansari, told reporters on Tuesday: “The big challenges in the region – and we are talking about internal and external challenges in different countries – require all of us to return to the negotiating table.”
The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, has called for dialogue. “Hopefully, the United States and Iran will resolve this issue among themselves – whether through mediators, other actors, or direct dialogue. We are closely following these developments.”
