Theater owners are preparing for a very merry Christmas season.
This holiday might not be one for the record books, but the lineup of films offers something important — a range of genres and styles — as exhibitors brace for what’s usually the busiest stretch of the year. That’s an important distinction in post-COVID times. Since the pandemic, cinema operators have relied on one billion-dollar behemoth (“Spider-Man: No Way Home” in 2021 and “Avatar: The Way of Water” in 2022) or struggled with none at all (“Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” floundered in 2023 and while “Mufasa” rebounded after a soft start in 2024, “The Lion King” prequel couldn’t claw its way to the billion-dollar mark).
This year, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will continue to dominate but James Cameron’s sci-fi threequel won’t be alone in enticing audiences. Over the weekend, a trio of holiday releases — A24’s R-rated ping-pong adventure “Marty Supreme,” the Focus Features musical drama “Song Sung Blue” and Sony’s disaster comedy “Anaconda” — hope to cater to moviegoers young, old, or disinterested in returning to the alien planet of Pandora.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” is aiming for $55 million to $65 million over the traditional weekend and $75 million to $80 million through the four-day holiday frame. Those ticket sales would mark a 30% to 40% decline from its $89 million domestic debut. For context, “Avatar: The Way of Water” dropped by 52% in its sophomore outing after a significantly stronger $134 million debut. Disney and 20th Century’s “Avatar” franchise appears be experiencing diminishing returns, though it’s important to remember these films aren’t known for explosive opening weekends. Instead, “Avatar” installments enjoy exceptional staying power, sticking around at the top of the box office for weeks on end. The first two films, which each ended up grossing over $2 billion globally, were No. 1 for seven consecutive weekends. Barring a surprise, “Fire and Ash” should remain atop the charts in North America well into the new year.
In terms of new releases, Jack Black and Paul Rudd’s “Anaconda” is expected to lead the pack with $20 million from 3,400 venues between Christmas on Thursday and Sunday. “Marty Supreme” is targeting $12 million to $20 million, while “Song Song Blue” is projected to earn $10 million to $14 million from 2,400 theaters. In general, Christmas releases don’t always deliver huge debuts but tend to play and play on the big screen into January and beyond.
“Anaconda” cost $45 million to produce. A meta-reboot, “Anaconda” follows best friends who travel to the jungle to pursue their childhood dream of remaking their all-time favorite movie (you guessed it!) 1997’s “Anaconda.” The project starts to unravel when life imitates art and a real anaconda begins hunting them down.
“Marty Supreme” had a rollicking start in limited release, breaking into the top 10 with $875,000 while playing on just six screens. Those initial returns are promising ahead of the nationwide expansion, which will test the $70 million-budgeted film’s commercial viability. It helps that Timothée Chalamet, who stars as the fictional table tennis champ Marty Mauser, has been rewriting the rules of movie marketing in terms of getting out the word for an original film. “Marty Supreme” has generated great reviews and encouraging word of mouth. Now the question is: Will Chalamet’s viral antics translate to ticket sales?
“Song Sung Blue” carries a modest $30 million production budget. Craig Brewer directed the film, featuring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true story of two down-on-their luck musicians who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Variety’s chief film critic Owen Gleiberman praised “Song Sung Blue” as “a winning pop nostalgia trip with a dark side.”
With just two weeks to go, overall domestic revenues are hovering at $8.37 billion, just 1.3% ahead of last year and 22.4% behind 2019, according to Comscore. It’s been a wobbly year with several hits (“Lilo & Stitch,” “Zootopia 2,” “A Minecraft Movie” and “Demon Slayer,” among others) but not enough to offset a number of big-budget flops (“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” and “Snow White,” to name a few). Projections for 2025 were already revised down to $9 billion, but after a brutal fall season, even that milestone feels like a stretch. Will these holiday offerings be able to deliver, or is the box office doomed to fall short of $9 billion for the second consecutive year?
