India’s e-commerce market to reach $250 billion by 2030: Report


India’s e-commerce landscape is being fundamentally reshaped, with projections from Google and Deloitte’s ‘The $250 Billion Commerce Frontier’ report estimating it will grow from $90 billion to $250 billion by 2030. This evolution marks a transition from simply expanding access and infrastructure to delivering integrated, end-to-end value. The traditional linear shopping funnel is giving way to a dynamic, always-on journey—where discovery, validation, and instant gratification happen seamlessly and continuously.

As 150 million new shoppers enter the digital economy and per capita spend doubles, a 220-million-strong cohort of Gen Z consumers is set to command 45 per cent of online spend, as per the report. This shift mandates a move toward AI-powered shopping experiences. The report identifies four critical forces—Inspired, Intelligent, Instant, and Immersive—which are projected to contribute $100 billion to commerce growth by 2030.

“This is a pivotal moment for Indian commerce driven by a fundamental shift in how India shops. Consumers today demand experiences inspired by storytelling, powered by AI and immersive technologies, and anchored by instant fulfilment. At Google, we are committed to empowering this ecosystem through intelligence and trust. From our virtual try-on tool and shopping features in AI Mode and now, Gemini app to creators driving commerce on YouTube, we are streamlining the journey from brainstorming to browsing to final purchase. Central to this evolution is our focus on agentic AI, where we are building tools to benefit both consumers and brands. We are excited to partner with the ecosystem to drive this new standard of commerce, leveraging AI to turn the ‘love for the find’ into a personalised, seamless reality for every consumer,” Roma Datta Chobey, managing director – Connected Consumer Commerce, Google India.

India’s e-commerce market is set to grow from $90 billion to $250 billion by 2030, driven by Gen Z, AI-powered experiences, and 150 million new shoppers.
The ecosystem is shifting towards personalised, always-on journeys enabled by creators, quick commerce, and immersive tech.
AI, hybrid retail models, and unified shopping experiences will boost efficiency, engagement, and profitability.

“India’s e-commerce landscape is entering a structurally different phase, moving from mass marketing to an era of algorithmic intimacy, where demand is not just predicted but synthesised in real time. A new cohort of digital-first consumers, led by Gen Z, is driving this shift, valuing authenticity alongside speed and relevance. This is accelerating the rise of generative commerce, where consumers can describe a need and AI curates or even creates solutions instantly. We are also beginning to see the emergence of curation-as-a-service, with AI-led journeys reshaping discovery, decision-making and fulfilment. For businesses, the opportunity lies in combining intelligent technology, creator ecosystems and agile supply chains to drive deeper engagement, higher wallet share and sustainable growth,” said Anand Ramanathan, Partner & Consumer Industry Leader – South Asia, Deloitte.

By 2030, creators will influence 30 per cent of total retail spend, with one in ten online purchases directly attributable to a creator storefront. This trust economy will be most potent in Tier 2+ markets, where creators will onboard 60 million first-time buyers online. Driving this momentum, the report states that Live Commerce is set to become an $8 billion sector, powered by Gen Z adoption. This shift transforms social discovery into a high-velocity, experience-led sales engine—most prominently across the Fashion, Beauty, and Electronics categories.

As per the report, Quick Commerce is maturing into a $50 billion powerhouse, with a shopper base projected to double to 70 million. Tier 2+ cities will drive 30 per cent of the market as the model scales beyond urban hubs. Non-food categories like beauty, fashion, and electronics will command 45 per cent of total spend by 2030, creating a $10 billion opportunity for vertical specialists. The company will see the emergence of hybrid models driven by the partnership between platforms and traditional branded retail. By integrating offline inventory into digital networks, this hybrid model unlocks $20 billion in spending, giving retailers instant digital reach and platforms the high-margin inventory needed for scale.

AI is set to redefine retail profitability by hyper-personalising the shopping journey while driving significant operational efficiency. By bridging the gap between browsing and buying, AI is evolving into an expert advisor for India and a trusted companion for shoppers from India.

With new updates across Gemini, AI Mode, and Circle to Search, the company is bringing its most advanced AI tools to help users in India shop with more confidence and less effort. New shopping features in the Gemini app can now help users go from brainstorming to browsing right within their chat, while our biggest upgrade to shopping in AI Mode in Search in India will make shopping more conversational and seamless.

This front-end ease, matched with AI-driven inventory and logistics, can deliver a high-touch, personalised experience at a profitable scale. 89 per cent of shoppers now seek a fluid journey where a single synchronised cart follows them from their phone to the physical aisle. This unified experience will be powered by immersive technologies that bridge the imagination and information gap, driving significant revenue for retailers. AR and Virtual Try-on features are already powerful drivers for sales: according to the report, 1 in 3 Indian shoppers now prefer virtual trials, with half of those users significantly increasing their online spend. Consequently, as 72 per cent of consumers will pay a premium for tech-enabled expertise, the physical store is being redefined as a high-value experience arena that prioritises expert advice over mere inventory.

By leveraging the capabilities of AI, immersive technology, and building creator-led communities, India can strategically transform its retail sector. This shift will drive innovation, enhance operational efficiency, and deliver the personalised, seamless experiences needed to meet the evolving demands of modern Indian consumers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)