Agentic artificial intelligence (AI) could drive as much as a quarter of U.S. ecommerce sales by the end of the decade, reshaping how consumers shop and how retailers compete, according to a new analysis from Bain & Co.
Bain estimates the U.S. agentic commerce market could reach $300 billion to $500 billion by 2030, representing 15% to 25% of total online retail sales. The firm defines agentic commerce as transactions that autonomous AI agents initiate, influence or complete — either via third parties or hosted by retailers — rather than shopping journeys that rely only on AI-assisted search, recommendations or product discovery.
The forecast underscores a potential inflection point for digital commerce as AI moves beyond helping shoppers find products to actively making purchasing decisions, executing checkout and coordinating fulfillment on consumers’ behalf.
Consumer use of AI in shopping is already widespread at the research stage. Bain estimates 30% to 45% of U.S. consumers use generative AI tools to research products or compare options before making a purchase.
How agentic AI is increasingly generating U.S. ecommerce sales
AI’s influence is also beginning to show up in transaction data. Bain cites figures from Salesforce estimating that AI and autonomous agents influenced about $3 billion in U.S. Black Friday sales, signaling early commercial impact even as most purchases remain consumer directed.
Still, Bain said shoppers remain cautious about relinquishing full control of the buying process. Most consumers are not yet comfortable allowing AI to manage an end-to-end transaction without human involvement, particularly for higher-consideration purchases.
Bain expects adoption of agentic commerce to vary by product category and by how clearly a shopper’s intent can be defined.
Specification-driven purchases — such as household essentials or commoditized products where price, speed and availability are the primary decision factors — are likely to shift first. In these cases, AI agents can optimize quickly across retailers, potentially accelerating price competition and disrupting multi-brand sellers.
More discretionary categories, including apparel and travel, are expected to adopt agentic commerce more gradually as consumer trust improves and AI systems become better at accounting for personal preferences, fitness, and brand affinity.
By 2030, Bain expects AI to play a role in most online shopping journeys, even if it does not complete every transaction. The firm said retailers who fail to define an agentic commerce strategy risk ceding control over customer data, checkout and fulfillment to third-party AI platforms.
Bain said leading retailers are already evaluating how to integrate agentic AI into their commerce architectures while retaining ownership of customer relationships and operational data — choices that could determine competitive positioning over the next decade.
As with earlier shifts in consumer behavior — from ridesharing to home-sharing — Bain argues that once trust and infrastructure align, autonomous purchasing could move rapidly from novelty to mainstream.
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