A fresh wave of speculation surrounds North Korea’s leadership succession, as recent actions by Kim Jong Un suggest his teenage daughter, Kim Ju-ae, could be positioned as the next leader. South Korea’s spy agency and lawmakers have cited a notable increase in her public profile, fuelling ongoing debate among regional analysts about the future of the Kim dynasty.
If the whispers about Kim Jong-un’s successor turn out to be true, it could trigger a succession battle within the family, according to experts.
As per Rah Jong-yil, former South Korean ambassador to the UK and former deputy director of Seoul’s intelligence service, the transition of power to Ju-ae may not be easy, The Telegraph reported.
The South Korean diplomat added that Kim Yo-jong, Jong-un’s 38-year-old sister, has already set her sights on the throne.
Also regarded as the second most powerful person in North Korea, Kim’s sister holds considerable sway over the country’s military and bureaucracy.
“It depends on the timing, but I believe that if Kim Yo-jong believes she has a chance of becoming the top leader, she would take it,” Jong-yil was quoted as telling The Telegraph.
Kim Ju Ae, believed to be in her early teens, has appeared at several major events alongside her father. While her exact age remains unconfirmed, she is the only one of Kim Jong Un’s children to be publicly acknowledged, with North Korean state media frequently referring to her as the “beloved daughter” and “dear daughter.”
The succession theory gained momentum following a closed-door briefing by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS). Lawmakers reported that the agency believes Kim Jong Un has “entered the stage of nominating her as successor.”
In the same briefing, the NIS informed lawmakers that Ju Ae’s role now extends beyond ceremonial appearances. According to lawmakers, she has “expressed opinions on some measures” in policy, which is perceived as an unusual development given the secretive nature of the regime.
Despite these signs, much about the Kim family remains shrouded in secrecy. Little information escapes North Korea, recognized as one of the world’s most closed-off and repressive countries.
The Covid-19 pandemic has deepened North Korea’s isolation. Borders remain tightly sealed, and most foreign diplomatic missions and international organisations have left the country, further limiting external insight.
Intelligence agencies in the region continue to monitor developments within North Korea closely, particularly those that may signal changes in leadership. The Kim family has maintained control over the country for generations, making succession issues a matter of significant regional interest.
A major political assembly, the country’s first in five years, is expected later in February. Such gatherings often signal shifts in policy and leadership structure, and South Korean lawmakers stated that the NIS will closely observe whether Ju Ae attends, her treatment at the event, and any formal titles she may receive.
Western analysts believe Kim Jong Un has three children, with Ju Ae identified as the middle child. This information, however, cannot be independently verified due to the regime’s opacity.
The international community first became aware of Kim Ju Ae in 2013 when American basketball player Dennis Rodman visited Pyongyang. Rodman later told The Guardian, “I held their baby Ju Ae and spoke with (Kim’s wife) as well.”
Ju Ae remained largely out of view until 2022, when she appeared publicly beside Kim Jong Un during the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Images from the event showed Kim holding the hand of a young girl, widely believed to be Ju Ae, in front of the missile.
Following her initial appearance, Kim Ju Ae featured in several subsequent high-profile events, including military parades in Pyongyang, where she observed displays of ICBMs with her father.
Her first international appearance came last September, when she accompanied Kim Jong Un to Beijing for a military parade hosted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. During the event, Kim, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared together, highlighting their alliance. Ju Ae, however, remained out of public sight during the proceedings.
She remains the only child of Kim Jong Un to be seen in public, with state media consistently highlighting her role. If Kim has other children, they have not been presented to the North Korean public.
Not all experts accept that Ju Ae is the designated successor. Some analysts regard her public appearances and the attention paid by state media as efforts to shape international perceptions rather than a genuine transition of power.
The process by which successors are chosen within the Kim family remains unclear, and analysts note that this secrecy could be intentional. It allows potential heirs, including Ju Ae’s siblings, to remain out of the public eye.
In the past, North Korea’s power transitions have not always been bloodless. In fact, when Kim took over from his father in December 2011, he had his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, arrested on charges of treason and subsequently executed by firing squad.
Also seen as a potential successor, Kim’s half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, who had been in exile in Macao since 2003, had his face smeared with the deadly VX nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017. If Kim ends up announcing his daughter as his future successor, experts believe that the future chain of events will follow similar script of the past.
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