In 2025, e-commerce crossed a structural threshold. Global online sales exceeded US$6.8 trillion (MX$116 trillion), representing 20.5% of total retail worldwide. Yet as growth normalizes, competitive advantage is no longer defined by customer acquisition alone. According to Reversso’s 2025 Report, post-purchase operations — particularly returns and exchanges — have become a decisive driver of profitability, retention and brand equity.
Returns as a Retention Strategy
The traditional perception of returns as lost revenue is increasingly outdated. Reversso’s data shows that 57% of post-purchase requests are resolved through exchanges rather than refunds, indicating that most customers are seeking solutions, not exits.
Rodrigo Cerda Somoza, Head of Revenue, Reversso Mexico, said this reframes reverse logistics as a strategic function. “When a customer initiates a return, they are giving the brand a second opportunity. If that process is frictionless, the relationship is preserved. If not, it is broken. The decision point is no longer the checkout — it is the resolution.”
Monetizing the Exchange Moment
Beyond retention, structured exchange flows are generating incremental revenue. In 2025, 26% of exchanges resulted in customers selecting higher-priced products, effectively converting a potential refund into an upsell. On average, customers navigating optimized exchange systems spent 19% more than their original purchase value.
This shift signals that post-purchase is no longer a cost center but a revenue engine. Brands that redesign the return journey are capturing additional margin while strengthening customer lifetime value.
Zero Tolerance in a Maturing Market
The urgency of this transformation reflects changing consumer behavior. According to the Behind the Click study by Endeavor and Mercado Libre, 47% of Latin American online shoppers would abandon a platform after a single negative experience. In markets such as Mexico, where digital adoption has accelerated, service quality now outweighs price in many purchase decisions.
“The consumer today evaluates the entire experience, not just the transaction,” Cerda said. “Resolving a problem efficiently builds more loyalty than completing a sale.”
As a result, retailers are integrating automated reverse logistics platforms that combine workflow orchestration, data analytics and AI-driven recommendations. The goal is not only to process returns faster but to prevent them.
AI as a Preventive Tool
Predictive AI has become central to this evolution. Retailers deploying AI-powered size and fit recommendations have reduced return rates by up to 30%, addressing one of the most common causes of dissatisfaction in fashion and apparel.
During the return flow itself, personalization also influences outcomes. Stores offering AI-generated alternative product suggestions achieve a 54% exchange rate, compared with 36% among those without intelligent recommendations. The difference highlights how algorithmic intervention can preserve revenue at scale.
Logistics Becomes Commercial Infrastructure
As digital retail matures, logistics is emerging as a commercial differentiator rather than a backend function. Helcio Lenz, Managing Director for Latin America, Infios, said AI adoption in logistics is expanding at more than 20% annually, driven by demand for hyper-personalized delivery expectations.
Gartner projects that by late 2026, more than 75% of digital purchase decisions will be influenced by intelligent recommendation engines. These systems increasingly incorporate fulfillment feasibility — inventory availability, shipping speed and delivery reliability — into product ranking algorithms.
“In that environment, a brand that cannot deliver simply disappears from visibility,” Lenz warned.
Consumer data reinforces this dynamic. Deloitte reports that 80% of shoppers will not return after a single poor delivery experience, underscoring the direct link between logistics performance and brand equity.
The “Second Curve” of Operational Risk
High-volume commercial events such as Black Friday or Hot Sale expose structural weaknesses. While promotional peaks last days, the surge in returns extends for weeks — a phenomenon described in the report as the “Second Curve.”
Two metrics define performance during these periods:
December 26 Surge: Return requests spike 97% above normal daily averages, requiring rapid reverse logistics scaling.
The 72-Hour Trust Window: Exchanges or refunds processed within three days sustain high NPS levels. Beyond eight days, satisfaction declines sharply, regardless of prior brand perception.
McKinsey estimates that AI-driven demand forecasting can reduce inventory and planning errors by 30% to 50%, mitigating both forward and reverse supply chain disruptions.
From Fulfillment to Predictive Execution
The industry’s competitive battleground is shifting from transaction execution to predictive orchestration. In 2026, success will depend less on simply shipping products and more on anticipating demand, ensuring availability and resolving friction with speed and intelligence.
“When consumers stop browsing and start deciding instantly, logistics becomes the true point of sale,” Lenz concluded.
